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    基于灰色关联分析法的页岩气资源丰度敏感性研究

    The susceptibility of the shale gas resources abundances based on the grey association analysis

    • 摘要: 页岩气成藏是多种因素共同作用的结果。要探明页岩气资源丰度,就要分清各种影响因素之间的关系及其重要性。研究影响页岩气资源丰度的各种因素,从众多影响因素中分析各种因素的敏感度具有重要意义。本文介绍了页岩气成藏条件,研究了影响页岩气资源丰度的主要因素。以北美典型的页岩盆地地层与中国四川盆地下古生界页岩地层相关数据为基础,利用灰色关联分析对页岩气资源丰度各种影响因素的重要程度进行研究。该方法的思路为:首先在大量离乱、随机的统计数据中建立参考数据和比较数据;其次,由于数据的单位不同,对原始数据进行无量纲化处理,使数据具有可比性;最后,运用灰色关联分析法处理数据,从整体观念出发进行综合评价,确定其对目标要素的贡献程度。本研究得到的资源丰度敏感程度自大到小依次为页岩深度、厚度、演化度(Ro)、有机质(TOC)和孔隙度,这为以后页岩资源丰度的研究提供了理论借鉴。

       

      Abstract: The shale gas exploration is developing into a new field of the exploration and development of natural gas in China. Referenced to the representative shale basins in North America and the Lower Palaeozoic shale strata in the Sichuan Basin in China, the present paper focuses on the shale gas accumulation conditions and controlling factors influencing the shale gas resources abundances based on the grey association analysis. The technological processes of this method may be generalized as follows. Firstly, the reference data and correlation data are established from the abundant chaotic and random statistic data; then the dimensionless processing is made for the original data in order that these data may be comparable. Finally, these data are processed with the aid of the grey association analysis in order to evaluate these data and their contribution to the target elements. The main controlling factors include the burial depth, effective thickness, organic carbon abundance (TOC), thermal evolutionary degree (Ro) and total porosity. The result of research in this study may provide one useful approach to the future research of shale gas resources abundances.

       

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