A preliminary study on evaluating method of water resources' carrying capacities of China and its application

Water resources' quantity is the most important constraining factor for the development levels of a society. Agriculture, population, industry, and town scales are four key factors which indicate the development levels of a society should be determined by water resources. This paper explores the evaluating method of water resources' carrying capacity of China, introduces the concept of "comprehensive quota", and tries to reveal the relations among cultivated land, main crops, industry, and water. The preliminary evaluating results of 31 provinces and municipalities of China show that waste of water is very serious in some areas and there is a lot of water-saving work should be done in the future. Even though evaluated at their largest water carrying capacities, a lot of areas are still in overloaded situation in the country. The overload of arable land is in the central part of the country. The overload of population is in an annular shape. The industrial overload is regional, and the urban land is overloaded while the coastal parts of the country are with a small "deficit". All of these overloaded areas need to improve their regional social carrying capacities in aspects of water resources, social structure and efficiency of industry.